What is happening with mortgage renewal rates in October 2026
The Bank of Canada maintained its overnight target rate at 2.25% on September 2, 2026 — the seventh consecutive hold since the hiking cycle ended. Its next scheduled rate decision is October 28, 2026. With the economy showing mixed signals — inflation around 3% in July 2026, cooling home sales, and trade-war pressures on the housing market — the October decision could go either way. Market analysts are watching for any signals of a possible rate hike, with the federal budget watchdog predicting the Bank of Canada could raise rates to 2.75% in 2027.
For renewing borrowers, the key question is not just the policy rate but the direction of bond yields. Fixed mortgage renewal rates are priced primarily off Government of Canada bond yields because lenders fund fixed-rate mortgages by issuing bonds. The 5-year GoC bond yield rose to approximately 3.44% in mid-September 2026, up from around 3.25% in late August, which is pushing fixed renewal rates higher even though the Bank of Canada has not changed its policy rate.
How the October 28 Bank of Canada decision could affect your renewal
The Bank of Canada's October 28 decision matters for mortgage renewals in two ways. First, if the Bank signals or implements a rate change, it directly impacts variable-rate renewals through the prime rate. Second, any change in rate expectations influences bond yields, which in turn affects fixed-rate renewal pricing. A hold would likely keep fixed rates broadly stable but subject to bond-market movements; a hike would likely push fixed rates higher; and a cut could ease pressure on fixed rates over time.
Many lenders allow borrowers to renew up to 120 days before their mortgage maturity date. If your renewal date is within that window, you may be able to lock in a rate now and monitor the October 28 decision without losing the option to switch. Reviewing your renewal offer against current market rates — rather than accepting the default renewal rate — can save meaningful money over a 5-year term.
Fixed vs variable renewal rates in October 2026
| Factor | 5-year fixed renewal | 5-year variable renewal |
|---|---|---|
| Lowest public snapshot (mid-Sept 2026) | ~4.09% (Ratehub high-ratio) to 4.24% (best) | ~3.30% (WOWA / Ratehub) |
| Main driver | 5-year GoC bond yield (~3.44%) | BoC policy rate / prime (~4.45%) |
| Payment certainty | Locked for 5 years | Can change if prime moves |
| Best fit | Want payment certainty | Can absorb movement; expect cuts |
| Key risk | Locked in if fixed pricing falls | Prime rises and cost increases |
The spread between fixed and variable renewal rates remains around 79 basis points. That gap reflects the market's expectation that the Bank of Canada may not cut rates in the near term. Borrowers choosing between fixed and variable at renewal should weigh their tolerance for payment movement against the higher starting cost of a fixed rate.
What to consider before renewing in October 2026
- Review your current lender's renewal offer against today's Canadian mortgage rates — lenders often price renewals above the best market rates.
- Use a mortgage payment calculator to model your renewal payment at different rate scenarios, including a hypothetical higher rate at your next renewal.
- Check whether you are insured, insurable, or uninsured — this affects the rate tier you qualify for and can move the offer by 0.25% to 0.50% or more.
- Review mortgage renewal rates across terms to see whether a shorter or longer fixed term better suits your outlook.
- Consider the upcoming October 28 Bank of Canada decision as an input, but do not try to time the market perfectly — focus on the payment you can sustain over the next five years.
- Ask about prepayment privileges, portability, and the break penalty, since these contract features can matter as much as the headline rate.
- If your renewal date is within 120 days of maturity, ask your lender about early-renewal options so you can lock in and still benefit from any rate improvement.
Compare renewal rates across lenders
RateShop can help you review current renewal offers side by side and estimate the monthly payment impact — without treating any public rate as a guaranteed approval. Start a no-obligation rate check.
Start a rate checkRate disclaimer
Rates, payments, and market commentary on this page are for general education only and may change without notice. Actual mortgage renewal rates depend on lender criteria, borrower qualifications, property details, mortgage purpose, down payment or equity, insurance status, and documentation. As of September 18, 2026, the Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25%, with its next scheduled decision on October 28, 2026; outcomes are uncertain. Public comparison figures (lowest insured 5-year fixed ~4.09% to 4.24%, 5-year variable ~3.30%, prime ~4.45%, 5-year GoC bond yield ~3.44%, mid-September 2026) are snapshots, not approvals. This page does not provide personalized mortgage, legal, tax, or financial advice and does not guarantee approval or a specific rate.
Frequently asked questions
What are the current mortgage renewal rates in Canada for October 2026?
As of mid-September 2026 public comparison data, the lowest insured 5-year fixed renewal rate is approximately 4.09% to 4.24% (Ratehub/WOWA), while the 5-year variable starts lower around 3.30%. The Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25% on September 2, 2026, its seventh consecutive hold, with the next decision on October 28, 2026. Bond yields have been rising, which pushes fixed renewal rates higher. Actual renewal offers depend on your lender, insurer category, credit, and property details.
Will mortgage renewal rates go up or down after the Bank of Canada October 28 decision?
It is uncertain. The Bank of Canada held at 2.25% through September 2026 and its next decision is October 28, 2026. Fixed renewal rates are driven mainly by Government of Canada bond yields, which have been rising; a hold or hike would tend to keep fixed rates flat or higher, while a cut could pressure them lower over time. Variable renewal rates are more directly tied to the policy rate. Public comparison figures are snapshots, not approvals or guarantees.
Should I renew my mortgage now or wait until after the October 28 Bank of Canada decision?
This depends on your situation and risk tolerance. If you renew before the October 28 decision, you lock in the current rate and avoid the risk of rates rising. If you wait, you might benefit if the Bank of Canada signals a rate cut, but you also risk rates going higher. Many lenders allow you to renew up to 120 days before your maturity date, which can give you time to monitor the situation. This is educational information, not personalized advice.
What is the Bank of Canada overnight rate and how does it affect my mortgage renewal?
The Bank of Canada overnight rate was held at 2.25% on September 2, 2026, its seventh consecutive hold, with the next decision on October 28, 2026. The overnight rate directly influences the prime rate (currently approximately 4.45% at major banks), which in turn drives variable mortgage rates. Fixed renewal rates are more influenced by Government of Canada bond yields (the 5-year yield was around 3.44% in mid-September 2026), though BoC decisions indirectly affect fixed rates through bond-market expectations.
How much could my mortgage payment increase at renewal in October 2026?
Payment increases at renewal depend on your original rate, your current lender's renewal offer, and market rates. Borrowers who originally secured rates well below current market levels may face significant payment increases at renewal. The Bank of Canada's staff analytical note on the 2025-2026 renewal wave found that many mortgage holders have limited room for higher payments. Using a mortgage payment calculator and reviewing your renewal offer against current market rates can help you understand the potential impact. This is general educational information, not personalized advice.
Sources used
- Bank of Canada: Policy interest rate (2.25% held; next decision October 28, 2026)
- Bank of Canada: Selected benchmark bond yields (5-year GoC yield ~3.44%, mid-September 2026)
- Ratehub.ca: Best mortgage rates in Canada (5-year fixed ~4.09% to 4.24%, 5-year variable ~3.30%, mid-September 2026)
- WOWA.ca: Lowest mortgage rates in Canada (5-year fixed ~4.19%, 5-year variable ~3.30%, September 2026)
- Bank of Canada: How will mortgage payments change at renewal? (staff analytical note on the 2025-2026 renewal wave)
- Financial Post: Ottawa's budget watchdog predicts Bank of Canada will hike interest rate to 2.75% in 2027