Current mortgage renewal rates in Canada — late September 2026
The mortgage market heading into the October 28 Bank of Canada decision is shaped by two key forces: the BoC's extended rate hold and rising Government of Canada bond yields. Here is what public comparison data shows for late September 2026:
| Rate Type | Lowest Advertised | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| 5-year fixed (insured) | 4.24% | Rose last week per Ratehub snapshot (Sept 25-26) |
| 5-year variable | 3.40% | Held steady; directly tied to BoC policy rate |
| 3-year fixed | 3.94% | Mid-range term option for renewing borrowers |
| 2-year fixed | 3.89% | Shorter-term option for flexibility |
| Prime rate (major banks) | ~4.45% | BoC overnight rate (2.25%) + ~2.20% spread |
| 5-year GoC bond yield | ~3.40% | Up from ~3.25% in late August 2026 |
Rates shown are public comparison snapshots from September 25-26, 2026 (Ratehub, WOWA) and are not approvals or guarantees. Your actual renewal offer depends on your lender, credit profile, insurer category (insured vs. uninsured), and property details.
Why the October 28 Bank of Canada decision matters for renewing borrowers
The Bank of Canada has held its target for the overnight rate at 2.25% since September 2, 2026 — its eighth consecutive hold. At its next decision on October 28, 2026, the Governing Council will weigh several factors that directly affect your renewal rate:
- Inflation: Canada's CPI headline was approximately 3% in July 2026, with core inflation around 2%. The BoC has projected inflation easing toward its 2% target, but higher energy prices (driven by Middle East conflict) and new US tariffs with Canadian counter-measures create upside risk.
- Bond yields: The 5-year Government of Canada bond yield rose from approximately 3.25% in late August to around 3.40% in September 2026. Because fixed mortgage rates closely track 5-year bond yields, this upward trend is pushing fixed renewal rates higher even without a BoC rate change.
- Fed impact: The US Federal Reserve's recent 25-bps rate hike has kept global bond markets volatile. Canadian fixed rates can be affected by US monetary policy through cross-border capital flows and bond yield correlations.
- Renewal wave: The Bank of Canada's staff analytical note (2025-21) and CMHC's Spring 2026 Residential Mortgage Industry Report confirm that a large wave of mortgages from 2021-era low rates are renewing at significantly higher rates. Borrowers who locked in rates below 2% in 2021 could face substantial payment increases.
What to do in the next 31 days before October 28
If your mortgage renewal is approaching, you have a window to act strategically before the BoC's next decision. Here is a plain-language checklist:
Most lenders allow you to renew up to 120 days before your maturity date. If your renewal falls within the next few months, you can already start comparing offers.
When your lender sends your renewal offer, compare it against current market rates from multiple sources. A 20-bps difference on a $400,000 mortgage can mean thousands of dollars over the term.
The 84-bps gap between 5-year fixed (4.24%) and 5-year variable (3.40%) is significant. Variable offers lower rates now but carry the risk of increases if the BoC hikes. Fixed offers payment certainty but at a premium.
If you find a rate you like, ask your lender or broker for a rate hold. Most lenders offer 90-120 day rate holds on approved mortgages, protecting you from rate increases while you finalize your decision.
Run different scenarios — fixed vs. variable, 25-year vs. 20-year amortization — to understand how each option would affect your monthly budget before the October 28 decision.
Fixed vs. variable: what the October 28 decision means for each
The choice between fixed and variable is the most important decision for renewing borrowers. Here is how the October 28 BoC decision affects each:
- Variable rates: Directly tied to the BoC overnight rate through the prime rate (~4.45%). If the BoC holds on October 28, variable rates stay stable. If the BoC surprises with a hike, variable rates rise immediately — and so do your payments (or the interest portion of your payment, depending on your mortgage type).
- Fixed rates: Driven primarily by Government of Canada bond yields, not directly by the BoC overnight rate. However, the BoC's accompanying statement and economic projections on October 28 can shift bond market expectations, which in turn moves fixed rates. If the BoC signals that rate cuts are off the table, bond yields could rise further and push fixed rates higher.
The current 84-bps gap between 5-year fixed and 5-year variable rates reflects the market's pricing of uncertainty around the BoC's next move. If the BoC signals a hold through late 2026, that gap could narrow. If it signals a hike, the gap could widen.
Mortgage renewal payment increase: what to expect
For borrowers renewing from 2021-era low rates, payment increases can be substantial. The Bank of Canada's staff analytical note on the 2025-2026 renewal wave found that many mortgage holders have limited room for higher payments. Here is what to consider:
- Borrowers who secured rates below 2% in 2021 could see payments increase by 40-60% or more at renewal, depending on their current lender's offer.
- The mortgage stress test (qualifying at the greater of the contract rate + 2% or 5.25%) applies when switching lenders at renewal, which can affect your borrowing capacity.
- Renewing with your current lender typically does not require re-qualifying under the stress test, which can be an advantage if your financial situation has changed.
Use the RateShop mortgage payment calculator to estimate your renewal payment under different rate scenarios and compare against your current payment.
Ready to compare renewal rates? RateShop helps you compare current mortgage rates from multiple lenders. Get a personalized rate quote and see how much you could save at renewal.
Frequently asked questions
What are the current mortgage renewal rates in Canada before the October 28 Bank of Canada decision?
As of late September 2026 public comparison data, the lowest insured 5-year fixed renewal rate is approximately 4.24% (Ratehub, September 25-26), while the lowest 5-year variable is around 3.40%, leaving an 84-bps gap. The Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25% on September 2, 2026, its eighth consecutive hold. Prime is approximately 4.45% at major banks. Actual renewal offers depend on your lender, insurer category, credit, and property details.
Should I lock in my mortgage renewal rate before the October 28 Bank of Canada decision?
This depends on your risk tolerance and your renewal timeline. Many lenders allow you to renew up to 120 days before your maturity date, giving you time to monitor the situation. Locking in now protects you from rate increases, but you could miss out if the BoC signals a cut on October 28. Fixed rates are also influenced by Government of Canada bond yields, which have been rising due to inflation concerns and the Fed's recent 25-bps hike. This is educational information, not personalized advice.
What is the Bank of Canada overnight rate and how does it affect my mortgage renewal in October 2026?
The Bank of Canada overnight rate was held at 2.25% on September 2, 2026, its eighth consecutive hold, with the next decision on October 28, 2026. The overnight rate directly influences the prime rate (currently approximately 4.45% at major banks), which drives variable mortgage rates. Fixed renewal rates are more influenced by Government of Canada bond yields (the 5-year yield was around 3.40% in September 2026). Public comparison figures are snapshots, not approvals or guarantees.
How much could my mortgage payment increase at renewal in October 2026?
Payment increases at renewal depend on your original rate, your current lender's renewal offer, and market rates. Borrowers who originally secured rates well below current market levels may face significant payment increases at renewal. The Bank of Canada's staff analytical note on the 2025-2026 renewal wave found that many mortgage holders have limited room for higher payments. Using a mortgage payment calculator and reviewing your renewal offer against current market rates can help you understand the potential impact. This is general educational information, not personalized advice.
Will fixed or variable mortgage renewal rates be more affected by the October 28 BoC decision?
Variable rates are more directly tied to the BoC overnight rate, so a change on October 28 would immediately affect variable renewal rates and the prime rate. Fixed rates are more influenced by Government of Canada bond yields, which react to market expectations around the BoC decision, inflation, and global economic factors like the Fed's recent 25-bps rate hike. Even a BoC hold on October 28 could still move fixed rates if bond markets react to the accompanying statement and economic projections.
Sources used
- Bank of Canada: Bank of Canada maintains the policy rate at 2¼% (September 2, 2026 press release)
- Bank of Canada: Policy interest rate (2.25% held; next decision October 28, 2026)
- Bank of Canada: Selected benchmark bond yields (5-year GoC yield ~3.40%, September 2026)
- Ratehub.ca: Best mortgage rates in Canada (September 26, 2026: 5-yr fixed 4.24%, 5-yr variable 3.40%, 84-bps gap)
- WOWA.ca: Lowest mortgage rates in Canada (September 25, 2026)
- CMHC: Residential Mortgage Industry Report, Spring 2026 (renewal-wave outlook)
- Bank of Canada: How will mortgage payments change at renewal? (staff analytical note 2025-21)
- Financial Post: Budget watchdog predicts Bank of Canada will hike interest rate to 2.75% in 2027
Live public-source research conducted on September 27, 2026: Bank of Canada policy-rate page (target overnight rate held at 2.25%; eighth consecutive hold; next decision October 28, 2026), Bank of Canada selected benchmark bond yields (5-year ~3.40%), Ratehub best mortgage rates snapshot (September 26: 5-yr fixed 4.24%, 5-yr variable 3.40%, 84-bps gap), WOWA lowest mortgage rates snapshot (September 25), CMHC Spring 2026 report, Statistics Canada CPI (July 2026, headline ~3%), and Bank of Canada staff analytical note 2025-21.